Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Not going to trading heavy (or with big size) again today as the quarter comes to an end

Although I may take a shot at shorting the S&P at 930 (which marks its May peak, the 62% retracement of the June range and also near R1 Daily and Weekly Resistance for the technicians), looking for possible profit-taking as the market has been up 5 days in a row into the the quarter end. Another possible short would be the financials which have underperformed so far this morning. If I take the trade(s) I would put a real tight stop on these bad boys because bulls could try to squeeze us higher to paint the Q2 brokerage statements... and I want no part of that if I am short.

Some other stocks of note in my book: The TBT swing long getting some traction here this morning. DGW above $24 resistance but volume not yet convincing me, but it could get loose and that's what I am in it. UNG as mentioned pre-market taking a hit although off the pre-market lows but $14 which was support now looks to be resistance in the early AM.

Update: Took a long in the SDS (2x short the S&P 500) at 54.26, tight stop under lows of the day under $54. Update: Took 1/3 off on the quick 50 cent pop.. stop moved to entry. Update: selling another 1/3 more for $1.2 gain. Update 12:13 - final piece off here for $1.5 as I could see a scenario where they rally us back into the end of the day.

10:53: I may make some positions changes or hedges in my longer term plays later today depending on the action the rest of the day - lots of commodity weakness today. Precious metals not really acting as safety plays today.

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