Thursday, January 21, 2010


more pain to come?

i would bet on it.

i imagine while the banks still have prop desks they will show there disapproval by shorting the shit out of the market.

still, i think obama is right here (from a long term perspective) on this and i am a republican.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

a down day, but again a huge afternoon rip

to really limit the damage. per everyday buying dips is the play. if history plays out we will gap (as we will be bought up after hours and overnight) and go tomorrow and eliminate all the losses today and maybe even break to new highs.

at one point today it looks like longs may have been about to break but then the magic bid came in again in the afternoon and we ripped into the close to basically halve the losses.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

well here we go again - market rips higher early

qqqq's have regained basically all the losses inside of 20 mins and SPY well on its way

i tell you you can not short this market regardless right now

throw all history precedent aside and just buy every fricking dip

i still am out of this mess but wish I could just go against my gut and just load the boat long on every dip because there has been serious money made just ripping shorts every dip...

Monday, January 18, 2010

well, markets closed today but futures are up

you can't stop the Monday up moves even after down days and on days the markets closed. should we really be surprised...we will see how it plays out tomorrow, if the market regains even 3/4 of the losses on friday shorts will once again be ready to run for cover and 1150 S&P could be ready to burst.

that said i'll stick with my gut from friday and say we touch at least 1120 before we get back to 1150... however, that is clearly against the grain bet as every one day pullback has gotten reversed the next day for months so odds favor that result i guess as the market clearly only looks forward about 3-4 months these days. earnings will beat consistently this Q but look out further and you say how do they keep it up when the govt/treasury/fed economy goosing activities slow down...oh yeah the bulls say private sector will come back in... i doubt that unless the private sector will buy 1.5 trillion of shitty 5% mortgages or 300 billion of garbage US treasuries yielding nothing or pay for people to be unemployed until 2020 (oh wait we probably will do that through higher taxes which would be bearish right? or can bulls say higher taxes means _______ (something bullish will be found but I can't fill in the blank))...

the way this market moves maybe bulls will break 1150 tomorrow just because momo is all that matters anymore... on our way to 12 hundy baby!

link thru to this article on how the market always has a case of the mondays but in a good way that almost seems fishy (13 out of 15 Mondays up in a row and mostly up big with the rest of the week not being so hot)...

Saturday, January 16, 2010

The beginning of something more than the one and done correction

yesterday felt different didn't it... i think this may be the beginning of the overdue correction.

everything sold off and it was on good news (intc and jpm earnings)

they always say the news is the best at the top and worst at the bottom

i would argue there have been several warning signs the last week in the economic numbers that the bulls have ignored

that said, everytime we have had a one day drop the following trading day we recouped most if not all

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

The game is fixed - for now

i mean how the F do we rally everyday at the end of the day and then in the early hours of the futures markets on no real news (most of the time)?

why isnt someone asking these questions? i know if we fell everyday into the close or overnight, we would hear all kinds of ruckus about short sellers, manipulation, etc.

2009 has taught me that manipulating markets is fine as long as it helps the majority and no one mainstream asks any tough questions of why strange things are happening or the potential repercussions...

i just feel for the people who are going to lose most of their money again when this wall street / fed / UST shell game ends

i mean look futures on the s&P and Q's already up considerably on top of the late day rally in the last 15 mins - for what reason? cause the PPT is coming into to keep the mirage alive

no one can call themselves an investor anymore at this time - you are either a speculator or not in the market

i firmly believe in 2010/2011 we will have another large decline which i think some will relate to the "outing" of the behind the curtain activities of the FED/UST and will kill many investors confidence in the true fairness of the capital markets

but until then let's ride the long pony and play the easy trends because thats the only way to make money. i have been pretty much sitting on my hands, but i know a lot of people who are just buying the market at times of the day that have worked over and over. that just doesn't sound like a good strategy for me although clearly buying morning/midday dips for afternoon and overnight rips has been the play.

everyone tells me we are going to at least 1200 before this stops but when i ask why? the say because we can't seem to go down - that scares me away.

i will actually state that i think earnings will again be good for this government goosed quarter but i think as we look out further the numbers will disappoint or maybe i am wrong and socialism and government subsidy of everything is the new "capitalism"...

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

A gapping we will go

up again - almost seems too easy for this market to go up... but, hey, I guess everything is fine again and we are in a new multi-year bull market. get long so they say on CNBC...

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Bailout BS

unreal, but the truth - i do think the big banks actually run the world

Monday, December 21, 2009

Higher we go...

feels like the bulls are about rip us higher. I actually think they can. Not much else to do except buy dips and not get short I guess.

Friday, December 18, 2009

More of the same BS

market seems off hard yesterday on big volume. Next day - bulls rip us right back up.

Can't fight this market. It is a long only, buy every f-ing dip blindly type market. yesterday, banks look ready to tank - today someone had to own these banks and they rallied. same pattern again and again - just when it looks like any sector / index will break - someone saves the day...

As I have said it will end badly but right now all systems go as the beat goes on and longs can't lose and have no reason to be nervous...

Monday, December 14, 2009

All the big banks getting rid of TARP before year end - WHY?

ummm... think about it. TARP has bonus restrictions mandated... with TARP paid back the banks can pay huge bonuses with all the free money they got! notice most of these big banks have huge capital markets/trading operations versus just retail banking...

nice trade big banks!

We have a long-only market

I know I have not posted much lately but not a lot to say into year end. We have a market where you can only be long because the momentum / action all favors buying dips at all times. In fact, for the most part stock picking hasn't even mattered as long as you were LONG you made money. The CNBC spinners are working full time to support the bullish mindset and bad news is shrugged off or somehow looked at as catalysts...

This market defies my underlying fundamental thesis so I have abstained from being long and have gotten chewed up a couple times shorting, but I stand where I am - looking to short but unable to pull the trigger because new 2009 highs seem to be destined to occur and this week would likely be a week (with the fed meeting, options expiration) that the big money will rip us higher.

Congrats to those longs who stuck it out through this whole rally. I certainly missed most of the move as I had no idea the power of a government and federal reserve that has no end to supplying money and any other stimulus the wall street moguls wanted and were surely positioned for.

It's about rally time for the markets again as the last hour or so thru the last 6-8 months have been full of day end rips where "someone" comes in and drills the buy button... only a few institutions with enough powder to cause these movements...

Can you say new highs this week? I would bet on it - even though I don't have my money behind that bet.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

I am back again

after google took the blog off for a few days for some reason?

Monday, November 30, 2009

Everything back to normal

Market rallies in the last hour per usual. Surprisingly, banks and reits rocket back higher than they were before Dubai even happened. This was shocking to me...

Tough market to play unless you buy, buy, buy. I have a feeling this will end very badly for longs but when is the question. As of right now, I see no fear in the longs and the buy the dip has worked so easily it's hard to stop doing it I guess for longs despite economic / geopolitical issues. Not a lot to report these days as eco data or news really isn't that important. This is a market driven by momentum and fear to sell/short...

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Looks like it will be a "black" Friday for the US Markets

Futures down big on this Dubai news and a worldwide selloff...

Dubai Debt Problems Could Rattle Market Friday

Look for the banks to get ripped...

Dubai said on Wednesday that the delayed repayment of debt was a first step toward restructuring Dubai World, the conglomerate that spearheaded the emirate's breakneck growth.

The news has sent the cost of insuring Dubai's debt against default soaring and bond prices tumbling.

State-run Dubai World has $59 billion of liabilities, its subsidiary Nakheel said in August, a large proportion of Dubai's total debt of $80 billion.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Is chasing performance a viable investment strategy?

I hear about how the market is going to go up because people are chasing performance.

I ask you is that a viable investment strategy or reason to be long?

None of my content is a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.

Please do your own research or consult an advisor before making any investments.