Friday, July 31, 2009

New very speculative pick - RCON (Recon Technology)

This is super speculative pick (but that seems to be what some readers are looking for), so be careful. The pick is RCON and is a very small IPO by an underwriter I do not know of, of a Chinese company (see the risk?). Still, it has the potential to really move as its got a microfloat of 1.7 million shares is profitable (made .87 a share in the first nine months of 2009 on big year over year growth trading under $6 and no one knows about it YET). Worth a gamble imo.

Here's the snippet from briefing...
Recon Technology IPO: tiny Chinese co that helps oil & gas companies with automation services (5.60 +0.03)

Recon Technology is a tiny IPO that snuck out yesterday (priced 1.7 mln shares at $6). Since China stocks have been doing well, we wanted to provide some quick background. The co provides Chinese oil & gas companies with automation services that increase efficiency in exploration, extraction, refining and processing. Recon's proprietary software and hardware manage the oil production and process in real-time thereby increasing extraction levels, reducing impurities in extracted petroleum and lowering production costs. Recon is the first Chinese non-state-owned oil and gas service company to go public in the US. The co is profitable with high margins (20% net margin) and posted revenue of $9.1 mln for the 9 months ended Mar 31. This is a tiny company with a $25 mln market cap. Anderson & Strudwick is the lead underwriter.

Here's the link to the prospectus....

Friday, July 24, 2009

Good Morning Traders - What's up?

DGW is... this is actually the only individual stock I have ever touted on this site. Hope you got some as my $30 target is in reach (premarket trading at $29).

I will try to add more individual stock selection to this site.

Market down slightly although it doesn't feel like a crash is imminent (although a 1-2% down day would not surprise me) and I see resolution to the upside before long. There is a time in the coming days/weeks were entering swing short positions in stocks/indexes will be the play, players!

UPDATE: DGW ripping almost to $31.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

You "gots" to respect the market momemtum

You will lose yo' a$$ fighting moves like this as a short. Better to step aside and let it go. Even if you are skeptical of the rally (as I am) I have for the most part not gotten drilled too bad by the 10% runup in the last week despite my bearish bias. I imagine there will be a miss by a major company soon that will cause a sell off, but with the momentum like this - too hard for me to aggressively fight it.

when you fight the momo - you usually lose because no one cares how strong your bias is - except you

Update: looks like this comment was dead on as MSFT looks like the big boy that disappointed that will lead the pullback... I was a day early on this call. still, think the market could pull back and then rip up to touch 1000. or is that too obvious?

Dollar hovering at 7 month low

for those paying attention. i have mentioned before that dollar devaluation is a reason the market could move higher than "true" fundamentals indicate. maybe that's happening here as the longs will surely look to tag S&P 1000 (in the coming days/weeks) now that we are in range... why do those round numbers end up being points that seem to always end up getting hit... it's like $100 on a stock - once it gets close it usually touches it.

Earnings for the most part are coming in better than expected again today

Still, not sure how much more the bulls can push it with out some sort of pullback. I just can't see how investors seems to think everything is fine and we are going back to the good ole' days this quickly. Nevertheless, the market isn't always rationale as we all know. Therefore my stops on my SDS is right under $50 and QID right under $28. Better be wrong and out with very small losses in this environment where the whacky happens - pretty much everyday

Update: Investor Sentiment survey out today and not really that bullish - that's not a great sign for shorts as it could indicate we have further to go before the stupid money top ticks the market.

Also, getting the feeling we may tick over yesterday's highs and then pullback as that would be the maximum frustration point for the most folks (shorts getting busted out to see the market come back at the end of the day, longs getting on board the break to get washed later in the day)... just a thought

Update: Stopped out of the short positions - well, that was pretty quick, but have to stick to the gameplan with the tight stop as longs show no signs of stopping and shorts continue to get rolled... weird to see GS struggling so much on an up day?

My old buddy DGW moving up again - getting closer to the $30 level i predicted when it was $22-23... wish I had more of that

Now, personally I hope the longs just get stupid and rip the market into the S&P 1000's... at those levels I would short with aggression for a medium term play as I see the market back in the mid/low 800's before year end.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Buying a little QID/SDS at the end of the day

looking for a pullback near term in the markets... these are trades and will be closed in a day or two regardless...

the SDS (2x short S&P 500)
the QID (2x short the Naz 100) - Naz 100 has been up 11 days in a row!

stops will go below today's lows in these etfs (said another way above the highs in the markets today) - so the stops are tight here. either i'm right or i am out quick.

I still own my precious metals positions ans short long term UST bonds position

Got a few emails if I still like these positions. I absolutely do although it could be a real bumpy ride I think these are great ways to both protect yourself and potentially be positioned for huge upside.

Also, are there a lot of fat people that come to my site - the lose weight ads are like the only thing that gets run here? WTF.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Can't stop the long MOJO - let's see if AAPL

can keep the long vibe going... since AAPL always seems to beat and then guide way low, I am sure the longs will find a way to be happy at least into the open tomorrow.

I will be a buyer of TBT (2x short long term treasuries) if it get back down to $50

Although I am not bullish - around 120 stocks hit 52 week highs yesterday

that is a little different than just oversold stocks bouncing... could bring new money in. imagine shorts will go after the open today - do the longs squeeze them out up to 1000 (S&P) or will the shorts win today.

think today is a level the shorts MAY be able to but a temporary dent in the momo, but longs have been strong and short has been wrong...

Monday, July 20, 2009

Jon Stewart rips the $hit out of Goldman Sachs

The Daily Show With Jon StewartMon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Pyramid Economy
Daily Show
Full Episodes
Political HumorJoke of the Day

Feels like the market may get to 1000 before long

that would be a logical shorting spot it would seem. late shorts haven taken a wild ride the last week as the market has ripped 8% higher after taking several weeks to fall that much...

DGW ripping - on its way to $30

as I expected (searh DGW on this site for my other commentary)... just wish I had a bunch of it. Perfect example of being right but not making much money on the idea!

Analysis: Geithner's tough task: marketing US debt

From Businessweek

Friday, July 17, 2009

DGW - one i mentioned before

really started to run yesterday - I hope you had some I sold most of mine pretty much at the low of the pullback for a small profit - damn. I bet we see $30 in this one before it's all said and done.

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Sheila Bair believes up to 500 more banks could fail

DJ reports FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair believes up to 500 more banks could fail, a U.S. senator said Bair told him in a recent meeting. "She told us that unless something dramatic happens, we could lose up to 500 more banks," Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky., said Thursday at a hearing of the Senate Banking Committee on the foreclosure crisis. Bunning said Bair made the remarks in a recent meeting. "That means that people who make mortgages in local places .... people that could really help in a foreclosure will not be there," Bunning said.

I bet this will be conservative - I bet it closes in on 1,000 when all said and done.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

5 reasons to fear inflation

check link

Market rips back after looking like we were headed to 820

I really don't have a feel for where we are going but go think we could see the dollar start to break down here as the place to add to bond shorts was last week. As I mentioned then - I don't know how you would lose money over the next 10 years short US Treasury Bonds at these prices.

Robin Hood Style

Rob from the rich to give to the poor - this is the new Obama America. read more for article

House Plans to Tax Millionaires to Fund U.S. Health-Care Plan

By Ryan J. Donmoyer and Kristin Jensen

July 15 (Bloomberg) -- House Democrats plan to fund the broadest U.S. health-care expansion in four decades by increasing taxes on the wealthiest Americans, imposing a surtax of 5.4 percent on couples with more than $1 million in income.

The legislation unveiled yesterday would place additional taxes on households with more than $350,000 a year in income and calls for further increases if the measure doesn’t hit a target for cost savings. The provisions are intended to raise $544 billion over 10 years.

House leaders said the plan, which includes mandates to purchase coverage and a public health-insurance option, would cover 97 percent of Americans by 2019. President Barack Obama praised their work, saying it will “begin the process of fixing what’s broken” in the system.

“We can’t continue to put more and more money into health care,” said Representative Henry Waxman, a California Democrat who runs the House Energy and Commerce Committee. “We cannot go home for recess unless the House and the Senate pass bills to reform and restructure our health-care system.”

Obama, who has made health care his top priority, has called on both chambers to vote on their versions of the legislation before their August recess. Senator Kent Conrad, a North Dakota Democrat, says that goal may be impossible, and Richard Durbin, the Senate’s No. 2-ranking Democrat, has said the chamber is unlikely to back the surtax on high-income people, further clouding the legislation’s prospects.

1,018-Page Plan

The 1,018-page House Democratic plan builds on a June 19 draft and for the first time includes details on how to pay for the measure. In addition to the levy on millionaire households, the House would place surtaxes of 1.5 percent on couples with incomes of $500,000 to $1 million and 1 percent on those with incomes of more than $350,000.

In 2012, the White House budget office would review the estimated savings from the health-care overhaul. If the savings are $150 billion more than expected, then the government would scrap a planned second set of increases for those making between $350,000 and $1 million. If the extra savings top $175 billion, the surcharge for those incomes would be eliminated altogether.

The surtax on wealthier Americans would be imposed based on adjusted gross income, meaning it would also apply to capital gains and dividends, which are currently taxed at a 15 percent rate. House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel said lawmakers targeted high earners because it “causes the least amount of pain on the least amount of people.”

Corporate Taxes

The plan drew fire from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the nation’s biggest business lobby.

“The intention of this plan is to tax high-income households, but the real victims would be America’s small business owners,” the Washington-based group’s president, Thomas Donohue, said in a statement. “Since when does our great free-market country punish success?”

The legislation would raise taxes on larger corporations as well. Among other things, it would make it easier for the Internal Revenue Service to prosecute tax shelters, and deny certain cross-border deductions that some companies are able to claim through tax treaties.

The House is also proposing a mandate on Americans above a certain income level: People would be penalized as much as 2.5 percent of their income for failure to buy health insurance. Most employers would be required to insure their employees or pay a penalty equal to as much as 8 percent of their payroll.

Awaiting Cost Estimate

Lawmakers are waiting for the Congressional Budget Office to determine how much the bill will cost. The nonpartisan agency said in a partial and preliminary analysis today that the plan would run to more than $1 trillion over 10 years and reduce the number of uninsured by roughly 37 million. The agency said that by 2019 some 17 million people -- about half of them illegal immigrants -- would lack coverage.

Eventually, the House and Senate must craft a compromise measure, and conservative lawmakers in both chambers have balked at taxes outside the health-care system.

Senator Ben Nelson, a Nebraska Democrat, said he’s “not hearing a lot” of support for a surtax on wealthy Americans. People in his state don’t like the millionaire’s tax “because they are looking someday to get there themselves,” Nelson told reporters on July 13. “It’s the American way.”

Republicans also voiced their disapproval.

“The Democrats’ priorities for health-care reform are now clear: a government-run system financed on the backs of Americans and small businesses with higher taxes,” said Michael Steele, chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Leaning on Lawmakers

Stumbles in the effort to reduce health-care costs and expand coverage prompted Obama to summon top lawmakers to the White House on July 13 to prod them toward action. The Senate has so far failed to reach a bipartisan compromise, and top advisers to Obama are discussing the possibility of relying only on Democrats to ram the legislation through Congress.

“Ultimately, this is not about a process,” said David Axelrod, Obama’s senior political strategist, in an interview yesterday. “It’s about results.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Ryan Donmoyer in Washington at; Kristin Jensen in Washington at

...Read more

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

More GS BS (F-Goldman Sachs)


Goldman Sachs - this is the straight truth

just buy Goldman because they are the market and it just makes me mad, apparently not just me - watch Gaspi get the hook at the end of this. read more for link
...Read more

Meltdown 101: How did $1 trillion deficit happen?

click read more if you would like to read the AP article

WASHINGTON (AP) — In a year of eye-popping numbers, add one more: The government's annual budget deficit has topped $1 trillion.

And with three months left in the budget year, it will actually get even worse. The administration is projecting that the deficit will hit $1.84 trillion for the current budget year, four times the size of last year's deficit. Last year's number was the all-time leader at the time, at $454.8 billion — a figure that now seems rather puny in comparison.

Here are some questions and answers about what happened to the federal budget, which began the new century with the longest string of surpluses in seven decades.

Q: Just how did we go from a string of four consecutive surpluses from 1998 through 2001 to the fix we are in now?

A: The surpluses at the end of the last decade reflected a boom-time economy, which was enjoying the longest uninterrupted expansion in U.S. history.

When the last recession began in 2001, that cut into revenues. Then the government's budget picture darkened even further after the 2001 terrorist attacks as government spending was increased to pay for wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Q: But weren't things getting better at the end of the Bush administration?

A: Until President George W. Bush's last year in office, the deficit had been shrinking, hitting a five-year low of $161.5 billion in 2007. But that was followed by the record deficit of $454.8 billion in 2008, the budget year that ended on Sept. 30 of last year.

Two things happened to make the deficit balloon: The country was hit by a severe recession that began in December 2007, and then those troubles were compounded by the worst financial crisis in seven decades, which struck in the fall of 2008.

Q: Isn't it unusual for the budget deficit to deteriorate so much in such a short time?

A: The size of the deficits this time around are unusual, but that reflects the unprecedented response the government has brought to bear to deal with the economic crisis. First, in 2008, Congress created a $700 billion financial rescue fund that had been requested by the Bush administration, and then early this year Congress approved President Barack Obama's request for a $787 billion economic stimulus bill to jump-start growth.

Q: Is that all that is going on with the deficit?

A: Unfortunately, no. Government spending is being driven higher not only by the financial bailouts and the stimulus spending but also by what economists call "automatic stabilizers." That is spending that automatically occurs in times of economic troubles to help cushion the shock of a downturn.

The government is spending billions of dollars more on these expenditures — such things as food stamps and unemployment compensation for the millions of workers who have lost their jobs.

In all, government outlays are up 20.5 percent through the first nine months of this budget year compared to the same period a year ago.

Q: Does that explain all the red ink?

A: No. There is one more factor at work: Government revenues have fallen by 17.9 percent in the October-to-June period compared with a year ago. That reflects the severity of the current recession, which is one of the deepest in decades and the longest downturn in the post-World War II period. That has meant millions of people losing their jobs — and thus not paying payroll taxes into the government's coffers — and a big drop in corporate tax collections as well.

Q: How does this year's projected deficit rank with other periods in history?

A: Without a doubt, the deficit will be the largest in dollar terms, but it won't be a record in relationship to the overall economy — the comparison preferred by economists.

The Congressional Budget Office is forecasting that the budget deficit for this year, using the administration's spending assumptions, will equal 13 percent of the total economy, as measured by the gross domestic product — a measure of the value of all goods and services produced in the United States.

While that would surpass the record of recent years — 6 percent of GDP, achieved in 1983, during the Reagan administration — it is far below the 1943 deficit, which was 30.3 percent of GDP. That deficit reflected the massive spending underetaken to fight World War II.

Q: What is the deficit outlook going forward?

A: That is where the real problems may come. Economists say it is OK to run massive deficits now to stabilize the banking system and get the economy growing again. But they are fearful that the administration and Congress will not do enough to get future deficits under control, despite Obama's pledge to cut the deficit in half by the end of his first term in office.

Q: Why do they question Obama's pledge?

A: The CBO is projecting that the deficits will remain huge for years to come under the administration's budget outline, coming in at $1.43 trillion next year and never dropping below $633 billion over the next decade. All the red ink, the CBO projects, will add $9.1 trillion to the national debt during that period.

Q: What do private economists forecast?

A: They have equally grim forecasts and they warn that these projections underscore the need for the administration to get more serious about attacking future deficits once the current economic crisis is past. They argue that the only way that can be done is through some combination of spending cuts, especially in the government's big entitlement programs, and tax increases.

They say that a good litmus test of the administration's resolve is likely to come in the upcoming battle to expand health care coverage. They believe that proposal will have to be paid for through some type of tax increases to convince foreign investors that the administration is serious about getting its deficits under control.

...Read more

Will GS run the shorts early today only to drop later

in the day...

Goldman Sachs executives sold $700 mln of stock - FT

FT reports executives at GS sold almost $700 mln worth of stock following the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September, according to filings with the SEC. Most of the sales occurred during the period in which the investment bank enjoyed the support of $10 bln from the troubled asset relief program. The surge in selling among Goldman partners, at a time when the US government had thrown a lifeline to Wall Street, is likely to draw criticism from lawmakers on Capitol Hill. For the eight-month period for which figures are available, Goldman partners sold more than $691 mln in company stock, even as the co expanded its public float from 395 mln to 503 mln shares in several capital raises. For the comparable period between September 2007 and April 2008, when the average share price was substantially higher, Goldman partners sold about $438 mln in stock. A spokesman declined to comment on the sales, other than to note that Goldman partners receive a big share of annual bonuses in stock, and that for many, stock sales are an effort to diversify their holdings. Some of the sales could have been motivated by margin calls, which are said to have afflicted a number of Goldman executives who used company stock as collateral for loans.

makes you wonder

Saturday, July 11, 2009

Not much hype for this dude - but not sure why - James Morrison

I think this is really good stuff. Listen and let me know if you agree. For those new to the blog we mix trading talk with a little bit of my music picks here.

Read mo' for the video...

...Read more

What's up for you this weekend?

Apparently I am going to a "block party". I guess those still happen. I hope you all are having a good weekend. Enjoy yourself - remember the best trade you will ever make is "going long" enjoying life and family and friends.

Friday, July 10, 2009

China attacks dollar's dominance - Financial Times

Financial Times reports China has launched its highest-profile criticism of the dominant role of the US dollar as a global reserve currency at a meeting of the world's biggest economies. Dai Bingguo, Chinese state counselor, raised the issue on Thursday when he joined the leaders of four other emerging economies for talks with the leaders of the Group of Eight industrialized nations -- including US President Barack Obama -- in L'Aquila. The remarks, in front of Mr Obama, caused concern among western leaders, some of whom fear that even discussion of long-term currency issues could unsettle markets and undercut economic recovery. Gordon Brown, Britain's prime minister, said he did not remember Mr Dai making the remarks. But he said the focus should be on moving the world out of recession. "We don't want to give the impression that big change is around the corner and the present arrangements will be destabilized," said Mr Brown. "We should have a better system for reserve currency issuance and regulation, so that we can maintain relative stability of major reserve currencies exchange rates and promote a diversified and rational international reserve currency system," said Mr Dai, according to the Chinese foreign ministry. While he did not name the dollar, Mr Dai was unequivocal in calling for the world to diversify the reserve currency system and aim at relatively stable exchange rates among leading currencies.

THT - None of this matters to precious metals as they keep diving.

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Wish I had more to comment on in regards to the market

but not really "feeling" the market right I step aside and watch. I will add some random thoughts on trading this weekend. I think embracing the emotional side of trading actually makes you a better trader. So I'll have some thoughts on that as well as my long awaited "trading on tilt" article! ok, maybe not long awaited but that sells right?

Anybody wanna talk about anything in particular? That question almost sounds dirty to me but I'll leave it up anyway.

New Video for y'all - Ben Harper

Click read more to see video

...Read more

Looking for a better day from the stock market today

One thing I do want to note is that over the next 15 years I think if you short US bonds there is almost no scenario I can see how you won't make money. I will go into detail this weekend on why I feel this.

stopped out of DGW for a $1 gain but had $4 at one point. still think this stock sees $30 sometime but...

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

It is almost as if the Trading Gods are mad at me

All commodities down (except DBA)
Treasury Bonds up huge
And now the market is up!

That is contra almost every position I have except the few commodity puts I own.

Precious Metals have now become a hedge

against making money if you are long these things - unreal, but I guess it is real - cause it's happening.

Getting rocked today by the markets

Not a good day to be long commodities as groundhog day continues for with my shorts working but longs in commodities killing me. I have scaled out of some of these plays - unfortunately.

Looks like more punishment for the commodities today

and strangely its the precious metals leading the way down.

also, bonds and the stock market are slightly bid.

I may be taking some of my commods off today as I am reaching a point of heavy frustration and thinking about these positions too much. I find when you start thinking a lot about your positions when the market is closed (in a frustrated way) you probably have too much size or need to exit the POSition.

I imagine I should be buying instead of selling but piece of mind is worth something (not sure how to quantify that). Sometimes it's hard to let go of a position where you have given a lot of the gains back, but after you do it will be a weight off your shoulders.

My stops for today on 1/2 my gld @ 89.59, 1/2 my slv @ 12.49, gdx @ 35.49. I still fully believe we get huge inflation and the PMs hit new highs within a few years but just don't like the constant account drain near term.

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

When you're pissed off trading what do you say most often?

I think or say the the term, "that's f-ing bullsh*t!" the most, even if it is not true - I still say it.

I hear people say how you need to remain calm and do this and do that. I agree to some extent, but sometimes you have to yell (even if only in your mind) at the computer too. That's not really a trading tip. But, maybe setting a stop or closing your position, yelling at the computer and then walking away from your screen for a few minutes would be my prescription for you if you are getting too pissed off while trading.

So what do you say to your computer when you are mad?

Long-Term Trends Point to Gold Above $1,000


New Day - Same Result

Commodities Rocked (I am long commodities with a little put protection)

Market goes down (I am short the market)

Treasuries get bought (I am short treasuries)

I outperform the market

But lose money on an absolute basis due to my commodities exposure.

About to sell 1/2 of everything I own to get a fresh start as I feel myself getting frustrated and that's when I am bound to make mistakes (even though I have been very selective in my trading lately).

Monday, July 6, 2009

Dollar ends up lower, but so do commodities

I am disappointed by the performance of the precious metals in this environment. Seems like the should be performing better, but maybe I have better too one-sided in my view of the asset class. What am I missing?

I am probably on my longest stagnant performance streak in 4-5 years. It is a tough market but I feel like I should be doing better.

Bad News = UNG gapping to 52 week lows

Good news is I will be stopped out (I will give it 10 cents below its open and then sell out) and stop having to worry about this POS... well, I guess that's really not good news. But I have had about enough fun with UNG for the time being. UNG is a trade I got up about 15% on and will end up taking a loss of about 10% (and this happened all in a few weeks).

Also, all commodities getting rocked again and the market is down - looks like a Thursday repeat so far.

Sunday, July 5, 2009

GOP Rep. Kirk Warns: China's Investing Away From Dollar... Buying Gold & Oil (Video)

Representative Mark Kirk (R-IL) said this recently after his trip to China... uh...oh:

"China has lent about $300 billion to the US for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They're very worried about that; another $700 billion in treasury bills. And. they're particularly worried about the feds new policy of buying treasury debt. Cause they're worried that one part of the federal government is buying another part of the federal government. Sounds like printing money... They already are beginning to hedge. I think they expect quite a bit of inflation in the United States next year, so they made a major investment. They funded a second strategic petroleum reserve and they plan to buy $80 billion worth of gold. That's two Fort Knox's. Both of those investments only make sense if you expect significant dollar inflation." Click Read More for the video.

...Read more

Saturday, July 4, 2009

Happy 4th of July to All

Back with some market stuff tomorrow. Enjoy the day.

Friday, July 3, 2009

I am going long

my family, barbeques, my wife, my friends for the Fourth.

I hope you are too.

Thursday, July 2, 2009

New Music for You to Vibe on while your trading!

I like all this guy's sh..........iit. After this week I need a song like this, Ok. it's alright with me - Eric Hutchinson.

Click it or ticket

...Read more

Not a Great Day For Yours Truly as Commodities Get Ripped

My market shorts helped soften the blow (and DGW long helped a bit) but still got hit as all of the commodity plays got rocked. I way outperformed the market loss today but still lost. And I am not about outperformance, I am about absolute performance. Feels like I am grinding out nothing repeatedly. Tough market to play if you aren't trading by the minute for scalps. Just when you think you have a trend it reverses then reverses back then reverses back, etc... Choppiness I guess. I think sitting on your hands may be a viable strategy so that you don't churn your account in this environment. That is why my daily trading activity has been down at least.

Natural Gas (UNG) "The Widow Maker" Continues its Assault on Longs

UNG is continuing dropping the hammer on longs as this "piece" can't gain any traction. Maybe soon people will be giving away natty gas for free. My stop is set under 52 week lows which is rapidly approaching. I hate you UNG.

Thoughts for today on the Stock Market

Weakness pretty much everywhere so far with very limited bouncing back so far. All the precious metals stuff getting tagged more than I'd like to see today. The GLD and SLV have traded in really tight ranges so far today so look for a break of that daily range either way for a possible entry today (I will be). It seems these metals are now riding up and down correlated with equities. So much for the safety bid, more dollar inverse lately which is the same as the market.

Is this setting up for a "into the short weekend" short squeeze today? I would be more likely to believe that than a crash into the close, but if 900 gets taken out you might see a bunch of stops get taken out and with little volume around the desk this afternoon could cause some volatility (either way). Especially, if Government Sachs decides to start some program trades up in the last hour as they have been apt to do.

Other position of note: DGW has been eating through lot of supply here on the ask after shaking some weak longs out - makes me think it may break higher this afternoon (market willing).

Ugly Start Today for the Market

For just about everything other than my short market positions. My gut tells me buying the gap down around 9 hundo in the S&P may be the way to play today. I will be posting some thoughts around noon EST today.

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Miller Taback's Peter Boockvar on Gold

Here's a great video if you are a gold bull (click read more for the video). This guy has a pretty good following.

...Read more

Lackluster Leaders Top the S&P 500 Q2 Performance Chart

From Agora Financial: The S&P 500 finished the second quarter of 2009 with a 15.2% gain, its best quarter since 1998. Since March lows, the index is up nearly 35%. For all of 2009, the S&P is just above break-even.

So the obvious question: Where do we go from here? Was the second quarter a fluke -- a simple snapback of oversold stocks? Or a new bull market? For an answer, we sought out the “stars” of the second quarter… take a look:

Heh, let’s see: U.S. auto and manufacturing, financials, commercial real estate, retail, insurance and health care… all dead, dying, disabled or at least dubious sectors of 2009. Of all the 10 stocks you see above, only Ford is anywhere near a 52-week high. In other words, the leaders of the second quarter were the pariahs of the previous three. Are these the seeds with which market growth is sown?

End of June - History Says Buy Gold

If history is your guide, you might want to buy some gold today - Right Now.

“In our current eight-year bull market,” writes Jeff Clark for Casey Research. “June has seen the lowest return for gold. In other words, it’s been, on average, one of the best times to buy.

China requests reserve currency debate at G8, according to sources - Reuters, buy gold?

This should be dollar negative and gold/commodity positive. Eventually there will be a day when this non-dollar reserve currency "kicks in" for people and they realize this IS going to happen and you will have a huge drop in the dollar. Click Read More if you are interested in reading the article.

Reuters reports China has asked to debate proposals for a new global reserve currency at next week's Group of Eight summit in Italy and the issue could be referred to briefly in the summit statement, G8 sources said on Wednesday. One G8 source who was involved in the negotiations said China made the request during preparatory talks about a joint statement to be issued on the second day of the summit in L'Aquila by the G8 plus the G5 (Brazil, India, China, Mexico and South Africa) and also Egypt. This forum, the so-called "G14", meets on July 9 to discuss the financial crisis, trade and climate change and for the first time a G8 summit will also produce a joint G14 statement. A European source with knowledge of preparations for the summit also said China had raised the subject of a reserve currency debate and that it might be mentioned during the meeting, though the source added: "Any country at the meeting can raise issues they see fit. But whether there is a specific mention in the communique remains open," said the European source, adding that sherpas would discuss this further in preparatory talks on Friday. The debate centres on proposals by some emerging powers that an alternative should be found to the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency, to reflect the shifting balance of power in the globalised economy.
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An observation on holiday shortened weeks

I have often seen garbage stocks, high short interest stocks and low float momentum stocks really get run up in holiday shortened weeks (towards the end of the week). Maybe it's because that is where traders see the action...maybe it is because they can move these stocks as many market participants are away. Nevertheless, it is just an observation from watching the market for numerous years. This is more a suggestion to be careful shorting the momentum stocks the rest of the week than a buy call.

None of my content is a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.

Please do your own research or consult an advisor before making any investments.