Friday, October 30, 2009

Trick or Treat - Longs Get Tricked, Shorts Get Treats!

BOOYAH - Shorts get paid Part 2!

Shorts got paid as hell today (myself included). Looks like my thoughts about yesterday's move being ridiculous was actually right.

Now next week the longs could really be on the run. This is a true character change in the market.

Be back later but out for now as I had a big day after a lousy day yesterday. Good week overall for yours truly although it did not come with out the drama.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Booyah - Longs Get Paid

That sucked for shorts...

somehow everytime the market looks like it is going to really correct (closed below the 50 DMA yesterday) buying comes in - I mean everytime since March... i might even start thinking some of the conspiracy theorists are right!

once again after getting f'ing rocked on huge volume yesterday the buyers step in on minimal volume and shoot us back thru yesterday's starting prices.

i don't get the magnitude of this move. i thought we had a chance of bouncing up off of the GDP numbers today but 2% - are you kidding?

anyway, i would like to think getting short here or tomorrow at month end would be the thing to do if you are not short. that said, it may be better to just sit in cash if you don't like the volatility as shorts have been fighting an uphill battle and seem to still be.

the magnitude of this move is really what surprises me... even a 1% bounce I could see but this move has me a little confused.

still short, but confused. that's just the honest truth

If you want to truly understand the GDP report and not just the talking head perma-bull version click this link

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Booyah - Shorts Get Paid

What do you know? The dip buyers became ripped buyers today. As discussed here I shorted with size at the S&P 1090ish level. I also mentioned shorting China yesterday which came off big today. These shorts have paid handsomely. The fantasy recovery may very well be unraveling now as irrational exuberance subsides. Tomorrow GDP which may print OK for the bulls to try to buy us up into month end (although I see possibility of disappointment in the GDP consensus at 3.2% and I think it may be closer to 2.5%). Still it will show growth and bulls may try to push us up on that fact alone despite that it is built on stimulus money. That said, if the market bumps up, I would short the move.

I think this is the beginning of a deeper correction that CNBC will be promoting.


Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Will we see continued weakness?

market about even this morning...

Monday, October 26, 2009

The seesaw continues

markets jumping early today for no reason

Friday, October 23, 2009

It's a "bull" market

MSFT beats big as expected

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Do we get confirmation of a move lower today?

Initials claims higher than expected... that will hurt the bull bounce case today

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Dollar getting beat up again

This is scaring me. At some point the general stock market may get concerned about a currency crisis. But until then dollar down stocks up!

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Today's market thoughts string - read the comments

I post my thoughts in the comments section

Monday, October 19, 2009

Market thoughts string

See comments as this post is just to open my market comments in real-time.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

We have an "It's all good!" stock market

Whatever happens - "It's all good!"

Unemployment at 10% and getting worse - It's all good!

Market up 60% in a few months - It's all good!

Dollar going to shit - It's all good!

Gold through the roof - It's all good!

Foreclosures at all-time highs - It's all good!

Banks failing left and right - It's all good!

FDIC is broke - It's all good!

Government spending out of control - It's all good!

Low analyst estimates and company's beating - It's all good!

Valuations well above normal depending on any metric you look at - It's all good!

Consumers have no money and can't borrow - It's all good!

Feel free to add your "It's all good!" comments in the comments.

But first go buy some stock... and enjoy some MC HAMMER with the message of the day "It's all good" and I think the bulls are doing this dance lately as well!

Feels like there are real sellers out there today

Volume up

GS downgraded by Whitney - What Government Sachs downgraded? That's legal?

JNJ beat on lower sales and tax rate

CSCO announces dilutive acquisition

Let's see how they close this market ahead of earnings that will need to be great to keep this momo flowing... Banks weak early, Naz stronger early...

Will this be the the day buying the dip gets you burnt? Probably not as buyers will surely come in and squeeze us green, right?

Monday, October 12, 2009

Rallying S&P 500 Never Cheaper in Europe on Dollar--

I am still not a buyer here but... ran a story this morning with an interesting take on the valuation of the stock market. Excerpts from the story: Investors outside the U.S. are purchasing companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index at the cheapest valuations on record, their buying power boosted by a seven-month decline in the dollar... The S&P 500 is priced at 19.9 times earnings, the biggest discount to the MSCI World Index of 23 developed countries since May 2003, according to monthly data compiled by Bloomberg. For Europe-based money managers, currency translations push the average cost for a dollar of U.S. profits down to 13.6 euros, the lowest level ever relative to global equities... For overseas investors buying stock with currencies that appreciated versus the dollar, shares of S&P 500 companies may be an even bigger bargain relative to global equities. Adjusted for euros, earnings for S&P 500 companies are about 50 percent cheaper than those in the MSCI World, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That makes U.S. stocks less expensive now for money managers in Paris and Frankfurt than they were for American investors near the end of the bear market in 2002, when S&P 500 companies sold for a record 42 percent less than the average global ratio.

Interesting take that I had not thought about.

I am having a tough time buying even individual stocks in this market

It just feels too complacent for the situation the world is really in to me (unemployment, higher taxes coming, govt debt, cost cutting earnings beats, inventory restocking GDP bounce). Feels like people are just buying because the market is going up and not on some real long-term thesis (possibly a lot of stock renters here rather than long term buyers). I am worried about some event happening that refocuses investors on the risk and valuations in the market. I feel even if I own good companies everything will get pulled downward. I still own my RINO (which made a new 52 week high today), but other than that I only own gold stocks, precious metals, small long DBA (Ag), short the long term treasury and got long the VIX this morning. I also have my short S&P on from 1055 and loosened the stop to 1100 on this minor position to keep some hedge on my longs (actually thinking about adding short on a spike through 1080 which looks likely). Today, financials and REITS look weak early (may be other places to looks short although GS and JPM report this weak and they will probably "beat" expectations for what that is worth today with all the accounting garbage at these institutions).

Maybe my mindset is that of too many as sentiment isn't really bullish which often occurs at market turning points and we blow straight through 1100 S&P. However, I can not put new money into the market based on technical momentum and sentiment readings when I "feel" a negative market changing event brewing. Yeah I may miss a few percent but I feel the downside risk is greater so I sit on my hands...

Dollar reaches breaking point as banks shift reserves reports central banks flush with record reserves are increasingly snubbing dollars in favor of euros and yen, further pressuring the greenback after its biggest two- quarter rout in almost two decades. Policy makers boosted foreign currency holdings by $413 billion last quarter, the most since at least 2003, to $7.3 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Nations reporting currency breakdowns put 63% of the new cash into euros and yen in April, May and June, the latest Barclays Capital data show. That's the highest percentage in any quarter with more than an $80 billion increase... The diversification signals that the currency won't rebound anytime soon after losing 10.3% on a trade-weighted basis the past six months, the biggest drop since 1991.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Is DOW 10,000 inevitable this week?

Do we have to at least kiss 10k just to do it before any selloff can happen?

Lots of big earnings this week, surely the banks will beat with crazy accounting and one time gains... will investors keep buying "it"?

Friday, October 9, 2009

The TBT long from yesterday works briliantly - maybe a new swing

The TBT long from yesterday has worked for over $2. This is the ultra short long term US treasury. Clearly looks like a trend change in long term bonds after yesterday's auction. If you follow this blog you know I am already short a core position in long term UST's.

A new possible swing today I am looking at is the VXX (currently at $47.35). Basically, an ETF that tracks the VIX ("fear gauge") of the market. Note: this ETF isn't perfect from a tracking perspective and is not a long term hold.

CDC just said swine flu epidemic in the US so volatility could return. However, the market is testing highs after the release?

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Music from ALO

kind of groovy and funny...

If it's not the dollar - BUY IT

Dollar down, everything else up - even treasuries? what?

This will work until it doesn't and could end badly.

That said the short play is clearly loaded so a-squeezing we will go...

wish i would have waited for a retest of highs before committing short, now I may get stopped and watch us reverse down. so my gut was wrong on that short - it happens, possibly take the loss and move on...

my long precious metals positions are up nicely but my shorts are cutting into gains.

thinking about swinging a TBT long.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Shorting into this rally at S&P 1053

stop above recent highs (about 2% above) - this is a swing short

Monday, October 5, 2009

Precious metals finally going to start the "REAL" breakout

Precious metals (PMs) were up today with gold getting very near its all-time high again today. One thing I noticed last week was that the PMs were strong even when the dollar was up and the market was down which is a divergence that could have been the tell for this next move higher. Plus, I have been hearing alot of people talking about gold pulling back lately (even bulls on gold saying I will rebuy lower). That is usually when those "experts" are surprised and miss the first 5-7% of the next run. I would imagine a lot of stops are set right above all time highs and new money will come in at that same point.

More on my thoughts on the PMs later this evening.

RINO (Rino International) Rally Monkey!

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Friday, October 2, 2009

Buying some trading shares in RINO (RINO International) this morning

Stock has sold off from almost $22 yesterday to $18 this morning (premarket). 10 DMA is a little below $18.

Remember this Company will work in any economic environment because China has mandated that their customers install RINO's systems. Also, if you net the $2 a share in cash out of RINO's stock price @ $18 you have a forward PE of 7.5. Someone in the comments section suggested a $150 stock price for RINO in 3 years! I guess that would only put the market cap at $3.75 billion so that's not that huge... Discuss that idea in the comments section below?

By the way maybe I should change the blog to the RINO blog since that's all I have been writing about...

None of my content is a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.

Please do your own research or consult an advisor before making any investments.