Monday, October 12, 2009

I am having a tough time buying even individual stocks in this market

It just feels too complacent for the situation the world is really in to me (unemployment, higher taxes coming, govt debt, cost cutting earnings beats, inventory restocking GDP bounce). Feels like people are just buying because the market is going up and not on some real long-term thesis (possibly a lot of stock renters here rather than long term buyers). I am worried about some event happening that refocuses investors on the risk and valuations in the market. I feel even if I own good companies everything will get pulled downward. I still own my RINO (which made a new 52 week high today), but other than that I only own gold stocks, precious metals, small long DBA (Ag), short the long term treasury and got long the VIX this morning. I also have my short S&P on from 1055 and loosened the stop to 1100 on this minor position to keep some hedge on my longs (actually thinking about adding short on a spike through 1080 which looks likely). Today, financials and REITS look weak early (may be other places to looks short although GS and JPM report this weak and they will probably "beat" expectations for what that is worth today with all the accounting garbage at these institutions).

Maybe my mindset is that of too many as sentiment isn't really bullish which often occurs at market turning points and we blow straight through 1100 S&P. However, I can not put new money into the market based on technical momentum and sentiment readings when I "feel" a negative market changing event brewing. Yeah I may miss a few percent but I feel the downside risk is greater so I sit on my hands...


2 comments:

  1. took some more RINO off - still like it and hope to buy back lower

    ReplyDelete

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