Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Booyah - Shorts Get Paid

What do you know? The dip buyers became ripped buyers today. As discussed here I shorted with size at the S&P 1090ish level. I also mentioned shorting China yesterday which came off big today. These shorts have paid handsomely. The fantasy recovery may very well be unraveling now as irrational exuberance subsides. Tomorrow GDP which may print OK for the bulls to try to buy us up into month end (although I see possibility of disappointment in the GDP consensus at 3.2% and I think it may be closer to 2.5%). Still it will show growth and bulls may try to push us up on that fact alone despite that it is built on stimulus money. That said, if the market bumps up, I would short the move.

I think this is the beginning of a deeper correction that CNBC will be promoting.



  1. the one thing people forget is how fast a bear market rally can come unraveled

  2. as expected GDP gets the bulls going early

    3.5% is the number - will have to see how they came up with that number but might be due to inventories...

  3. it will interesting to see if after the initial pop today if we see selling and how the bulls react to that...

  4. i am not watching CNBC but I bet they are having a parade about the GDP growth and recession ending right now

  5. GDP - Not that great if you take away the "gub"ment spending and cash for clunkers and homebuyer credit...

    but let's just focus on the headline number, right! well at least after the selling we have seen recently I can understand the bump up as I mentioned yesterday, even if I think it's horseshit - you have to trade how you think the market will react if you are playing short-term... if you think longer term I would not worry about being short here. the bulls may pick up a couple % the next day or two but I will not be worried unless they get us back up above 1090 on the S&P.

  6. if i were shorting today for a day-trade I would look to buy SKF (2x short financials) at around 26 (that's where it is right now)

  7. Approximately 7,000 unemployed workers lose their unemployment benefits every day and 1.3 million workers are expected to lose them by the end of December.

    FOOD FOR THOUGHT when you see claims go down

  8. all i will say here is if we finish red today - longs should/will be really worried

  9. think i would be careful with intraday shorts now as market holds early - after dipping quick

    end of month could lead to buyers stepping into paint the end of month statements.

    still, i am not bullish just cautious here as the bulls have regained the upper hand today

    thought we may get a pop and drop, which we did, but then bulls held and pushed us back up

  10. well bulls back on parade

    another case of seeing what you want to see and buying momentum

    this market is a casino right now but its what we got

  11. not a great bond auction - if we weren't having a "rosy colored glasses" day we would seel off on this as rates spiked

    my remaining shorts are getting pummeled but long gold /silver/ agriculture etfs and short treasuries are softening the blow

  12. volume lower than yesterday indicating less institutional participation today

  13. wow - longs have recouped all of yesterday's losses and then a little - this is WAY further than i expected

  14. huge move up today on low volume

    i am again surprised by the magnitude of the move up here even on low volume

  15. well that sucked for shorts

    somehow everytime the market looks like it is going to really correct (closed below the 50 DMA yesterday) buying comes in - I mean everytime since March... i might even start thinking some of the conspiracy theorists are right!

    once again after getting f'ing rocked on huge volume yesterday the buyers step in on minimal volume and shoot us back thru yesterday's starting prices.

    i don't get the magnitude of this move. i thought we had a chance of bouncing up off of the GDP numbers today but 2% - are you kidding?

    anyway, i would like to think getting short here or tomorrow at month end would be the thing to do if you are not short. that said, it may be better to just sit in cash if you don't like the volatility as shorts have been fighting an uphill battle and seem to still be.

    the magnitude of this move is really what surprises me... even a 1% bounce I could see but this move has me a little confused.

    still short, but confused. that's just the honest truth.


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