Monday, December 14, 2009

We have a long-only market

I know I have not posted much lately but not a lot to say into year end. We have a market where you can only be long because the momentum / action all favors buying dips at all times. In fact, for the most part stock picking hasn't even mattered as long as you were LONG you made money. The CNBC spinners are working full time to support the bullish mindset and bad news is shrugged off or somehow looked at as catalysts...

This market defies my underlying fundamental thesis so I have abstained from being long and have gotten chewed up a couple times shorting, but I stand where I am - looking to short but unable to pull the trigger because new 2009 highs seem to be destined to occur and this week would likely be a week (with the fed meeting, options expiration) that the big money will rip us higher.

Congrats to those longs who stuck it out through this whole rally. I certainly missed most of the move as I had no idea the power of a government and federal reserve that has no end to supplying money and any other stimulus the wall street moguls wanted and were surely positioned for.

It's about rally time for the markets again as the last hour or so thru the last 6-8 months have been full of day end rips where "someone" comes in and drills the buy button... only a few institutions with enough powder to cause these movements...

Can you say new highs this week? I would bet on it - even though I don't have my money behind that bet.


  1. my gut tells me we rip higher

    my brain tells me to stay away

  2. i think people have made "safer" securities fair valued and have undervalued "risky" securities. Next year will be the year of small caps or risky securities.


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