Long-Term Trends Point to Gold Above $1,000

CNBC link HERE

New Day - Same Result

Commodities Rocked (I am long commodities with a little put protection)

Market goes down (I am short the market)

Treasuries get bought (I am short treasuries)

I outperform the market

But lose money on an absolute basis due to my commodities exposure.

About to sell 1/2 of everything I own to get a fresh start as I feel myself getting frustrated and that's when I am bound to make mistakes (even though I have been very selective in my trading lately).

Dollar ends up lower, but so do commodities

I am disappointed by the performance of the precious metals in this environment. Seems like the should be performing better, but maybe I have better too one-sided in my view of the asset class. What am I missing?

I am probably on my longest stagnant performance streak in 4-5 years. It is a tough market but I feel like I should be doing better.

Bad News = UNG gapping to 52 week lows

Good news is I will be stopped out (I will give it 10 cents below its open and then sell out) and stop having to worry about this POS... well, I guess that's really not good news. But I have had about enough fun with UNG for the time being. UNG is a trade I got up about 15% on and will end up taking a loss of about 10% (and this happened all in a few weeks).

Also, all commodities getting rocked again and the market is down - looks like a Thursday repeat so far.

GOP Rep. Kirk Warns: China's Investing Away From Dollar... Buying Gold & Oil (Video)

Representative Mark Kirk (R-IL) said this recently after his trip to China... uh...oh:

"China has lent about $300 billion to the US for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They're very worried about that; another $700 billion in treasury bills. And. they're particularly worried about the feds new policy of buying treasury debt. Cause they're worried that one part of the federal government is buying another part of the federal government. Sounds like printing money... They already are beginning to hedge. I think they expect quite a bit of inflation in the United States next year, so they made a major investment. They funded a second strategic petroleum reserve and they plan to buy $80 billion worth of gold. That's two Fort Knox's. Both of those investments only make sense if you expect significant dollar inflation." Click Read More for the video.



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Happy 4th of July to All

Back with some market stuff tomorrow. Enjoy the day.

I am going long

my family, barbeques, my wife, my friends for the Fourth.

I hope you are too.

New Music for You to Vibe on while your trading!

I like all this guy's sh..........iit. After this week I need a song like this, Ok. it's alright with me - Eric Hutchinson.

Click it or ticket



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Not a Great Day For Yours Truly as Commodities Get Ripped

My market shorts helped soften the blow (and DGW long helped a bit) but still got hit as all of the commodity plays got rocked. I way outperformed the market loss today but still lost. And I am not about outperformance, I am about absolute performance. Feels like I am grinding out nothing repeatedly. Tough market to play if you aren't trading by the minute for scalps. Just when you think you have a trend it reverses then reverses back then reverses back, etc... Choppiness I guess. I think sitting on your hands may be a viable strategy so that you don't churn your account in this environment. That is why my daily trading activity has been down at least.

Natural Gas (UNG) "The Widow Maker" Continues its Assault on Longs

UNG is continuing dropping the hammer on longs as this "piece" can't gain any traction. Maybe soon people will be giving away natty gas for free. My stop is set under 52 week lows which is rapidly approaching. I hate you UNG.

Thoughts for today on the Stock Market

Weakness pretty much everywhere so far with very limited bouncing back so far. All the precious metals stuff getting tagged more than I'd like to see today. The GLD and SLV have traded in really tight ranges so far today so look for a break of that daily range either way for a possible entry today (I will be). It seems these metals are now riding up and down correlated with equities. So much for the safety bid, more dollar inverse lately which is the same as the market.

Is this setting up for a "into the short weekend" short squeeze today? I would be more likely to believe that than a crash into the close, but if 900 gets taken out you might see a bunch of stops get taken out and with little volume around the desk this afternoon could cause some volatility (either way). Especially, if Government Sachs decides to start some program trades up in the last hour as they have been apt to do.

Other position of note: DGW has been eating through lot of supply here on the ask after shaking some weak longs out - makes me think it may break higher this afternoon (market willing).

Ugly Start Today for the Market

For just about everything other than my short market positions. My gut tells me buying the gap down around 9 hundo in the S&P may be the way to play today. I will be posting some thoughts around noon EST today.

Miller Taback's Peter Boockvar on Gold

Here's a great video if you are a gold bull (click read more for the video). This guy has a pretty good following.



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Lackluster Leaders Top the S&P 500 Q2 Performance Chart

From Agora Financial: The S&P 500 finished the second quarter of 2009 with a 15.2% gain, its best quarter since 1998. Since March lows, the index is up nearly 35%. For all of 2009, the S&P is just above break-even.

So the obvious question: Where do we go from here? Was the second quarter a fluke -- a simple snapback of oversold stocks? Or a new bull market? For an answer, we sought out the “stars” of the second quarter… take a look:

Heh, let’s see: U.S. auto and manufacturing, financials, commercial real estate, retail, insurance and health care… all dead, dying, disabled or at least dubious sectors of 2009. Of all the 10 stocks you see above, only Ford is anywhere near a 52-week high. In other words, the leaders of the second quarter were the pariahs of the previous three. Are these the seeds with which market growth is sown?

End of June - History Says Buy Gold

If history is your guide, you might want to buy some gold today - Right Now.

“In our current eight-year bull market,” writes Jeff Clark for Casey Research. “June has seen the lowest return for gold. In other words, it’s been, on average, one of the best times to buy.

China requests reserve currency debate at G8, according to sources - Reuters, buy gold?

This should be dollar negative and gold/commodity positive. Eventually there will be a day when this non-dollar reserve currency "kicks in" for people and they realize this IS going to happen and you will have a huge drop in the dollar. Click Read More if you are interested in reading the article.

Reuters reports China has asked to debate proposals for a new global reserve currency at next week's Group of Eight summit in Italy and the issue could be referred to briefly in the summit statement, G8 sources said on Wednesday. One G8 source who was involved in the negotiations said China made the request during preparatory talks about a joint statement to be issued on the second day of the summit in L'Aquila by the G8 plus the G5 (Brazil, India, China, Mexico and South Africa) and also Egypt. This forum, the so-called "G14", meets on July 9 to discuss the financial crisis, trade and climate change and for the first time a G8 summit will also produce a joint G14 statement. A European source with knowledge of preparations for the summit also said China had raised the subject of a reserve currency debate and that it might be mentioned during the meeting, though the source added: "Any country at the meeting can raise issues they see fit. But whether there is a specific mention in the communique remains open," said the European source, adding that sherpas would discuss this further in preparatory talks on Friday. The debate centres on proposals by some emerging powers that an alternative should be found to the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency, to reflect the shifting balance of power in the globalised economy.
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An observation on holiday shortened weeks

I have often seen garbage stocks, high short interest stocks and low float momentum stocks really get run up in holiday shortened weeks (towards the end of the week). Maybe it's because that is where traders see the action...maybe it is because they can move these stocks as many market participants are away. Nevertheless, it is just an observation from watching the market for numerous years. This is more a suggestion to be careful shorting the momentum stocks the rest of the week than a buy call.